HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date 30th August 2023.

Market Update – August 30 – Data bring Joy, for now?

Weaker than expected consumer confidence and JOLTS numbers helped diminish Fed rate hike risks which in turn underpinned strong gains in Treasuries, Wall Street & the Asian stock market today as the markets clawed back some of the hefty losses in August also on speculation that the Fed is nearing the end of the tightening cycle. The USDIndex slumped on the less hawkish Fed outlook. Short and intermediate Treasuries outperformed with yields dropping about 12 bps. The break of technical levels and another solid note auction added to the bullish momentum. The 2-year rate fell to a low of 4.865% but closed at 4.879%. The 5-year richened to 4.26%. The 10-year was at 4.10%. These are the lowest rates in about 2 weeks after recently hitting new cycle highs of 5.08%, 4.48%, and 4.34%, respectively, the cheapest in about 16-17 years. The curve bull disinverted to -76 bps from -84 bps Monday.

German import price inflation at the start of the session is also helping to bolster speculation of a pause from the ECB, especially after a round of dismal confidence readings.

*FX – USDIndex slumped to 103.28 on the less hawkish Fed outlook, currently at 103.48. This broke two straight days over the 104 mark for the first time since June 6-7. Central bank differentials will be important for the Greenback, and it could find some footing if JPY and CNY remain weak. EURUSD spiked to 1.0890 (above the 2-week channel), GBPUSD steady at 1.2640 and USDJPY retested 147.45 but turned quickly lower at 145.77.
*Stocks – Mega-caps climbed after a tough August. The US100 surged 1.74%, while the US500 advanced 1.45%, with the US30 up 0.85%. Gains were broadbased but paced by communication services, consumer discretionary, and IT. The US500 rose for a third straight session, the first time since the end of July. And it broke resistance at 4440 to extend the move to 4495.
*Nvidia jumps by 4.16% as Google AI Alliance expands. Disney at 9-year lows.
*Commodities – USOil higher through the session, rallying 1.3% to $81.33, the highest in over a week, on a combination of factors:
1. Overnight reports of a fresh round of stimulus from China helped support the demand outlook.
2. The advance has been boosted by the advent of Hurricane Idalia which is threatening supply as shipping is halted and some terminals are closed.
3. DOE reported Cushing stockpiles declined -1.9 mln barrels, near January lows.
4. The drop in Treasury yields & the USD are also underpinning.
5. On the other side of the coin, China's biggest refiner Sinopec said product demand growth is expected to slow in 2H.
*Gold – spiked to $1,938. Gold is likely to remain resilient, with any dip likely to attract buyers. Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note yesterday that "regarding the intermediate outlook, we are buyers of gold on weakness or declines in rates", and others are likely to take a similar stance.
*BTCUSD rose 5.32% and is currently settled at 27,354.

Today: US ADP and Preliminary GDP Price Index in focus.

Key Mover: USOIL (+0.54%) extended more than 50% of August downleg, with next key restistance levels at 81.60 and 82.30.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 4th September 2023.

Market Update – September 4- The first full week of a historically negative month for Stocks and Gold kicks in.

First of all a reminder: US and Canadian cash markets will be closed today because of the Labour Day celebration, obviously resulting in diminished flows this afternoon. Going back in chronological order, APAC is led by the excellent performance of the China50 and especially Hong Kong where a surge on real estate stocks helped the indices to add 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. This comes after embattled Country Garden reportedly won approval to extend payments for an onshore Private Bond and is now up 7.9% (just out the wire they are trying to get financing in Malaysian Ringgit); the overall Mainland Properties Index is +7.32%. This week there will be important data from this hemisphere with the RBA rate decision and the Chinese trade balance.

Friday's NFP figure was slightly better than expected (+187k vs +170k expected) but at the same time the previous two readings were revised downwards by 100k, while the unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.8% (3.5% expected) also as a result of an increase in labour force participation (62.8% vs 62.6%). There are more people seeking employment and this is probably one of the factors that led to a fractional decrease in Average Hourly Earnings. Overall, we emerge from the week with the impression that the labour market is finally starting to slow down.

Relative Performances by Sector, August

Yields and USD reacted by plummeting shortly after the data, before totally reverting the move and ending the day up; the long-end has experienced the heavier selling pressure, resulting in the curve steepening.

Crude oil soared again (+2.30%) with the EIA and API data showing considerable pressure on stocks during the week probably due to the effect of several months of production cuts. At the same time, Copper hit $390 before sellers emerged, adding to its 6.50% rally since mid August on decent Chinese Manufacturing data.

*FX – USDIndex recovered 104 (104.09 now), EURUSD turned below 1.08 (1.07865, GBPUSD just north of 1.26 (1.2609). USDJPY sits above 146 once again, USDCNH 7.2667.
*Stocks – US30 closed higher on Friday and notched its best week since July. US500 +0.2%, US100 -0.02% but still up +3.67% on the week. In Europe GER40 closed -0.6%, CAC40 – 0.29%.
*Commodities – USOil is digesting last Friday's rally, now -0.61% at $85.48, the spread against UKOil has reduced to $2.97. Copper flat at $385 after sellers emerged at $390 on Friday.
*Gold – still hovering around $1940, XAG pulled back powerfully from $25 ($24.18 now).

LATER TODAY: German Trade Balance, Switzerland GDP, EU Sentix confidence, ECB's Lagarde speech

INTERESTING MOVER: TESLA -5.06% at $245.01 after lowering the US prices of its Model S and X for the seventh time in 2023, now $30k and $40k respectively cheaper than at the beginning of the year. The price was rejected by the 50MA and the MACD is negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th September 2023.

Market Update – September 5 – RBA on hold, Chinese services deteriorate after a Monday without US lead.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

First of all a reminder: US and Canadian cash markets will be closed today because of the Labour Day celebration, obviously resulting in diminished flows this afternoon. Going back in chronological order, APAC is led by the excellent performance of the China50 and especially Hong Kong where a surge on real estate stocks helped the indices to add 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. This comes after embattled Country Garden reportedly won approval to extend payments for an onshore Private Bond and is now up 7.9% (just out the wire they are trying to get financing in Malaysian Ringgit); the overall Mainland Properties Index is +7.32%. This week there will be important data from this hemisphere with the RBA rate decision and the Chinese trade balance.

Friday’s NFP figure was slightly better than expected (+187k vs +170k expected) but at the same time the previous two readings were revised downwards by 100k, while the unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.8% (3.5% expected) also as a result of an increase in labour force participation (62.8% vs 62.6%). There are more people seeking employment and this is probably one of the factors that led to a fractional decrease in Average Hourly Earnings. Overall, we emerge from the week with the impression that the labour market is finally starting to slow down.

Relative Performances by Sector, August

Yields and USD reacted by plummeting shortly after the data, before totally reverting the move and ending the day up; the long-end has experienced the heavier selling pressure, resulting in the curve steepening.

Crude oil soared again (+2.30%) with the EIA and API data showing considerable pressure on stocks during the week probably due to the effect of several months of production cuts. At the same time, Copper hit $390 before sellers emerged, adding to its 6.50% rally since mid August on decent Chinese Manufacturing data.

*FX – USDIndex recovered 104 (104.09 now), EURUSD turned below 1.08 (1.07865, GBPUSD just north of 1.26 (1.2609). USDJPY sits above 146 once again, USDCNH 7.2667.
*Stocks – US30 closed higher on Friday and notched its best week since July. US500 +0.2%, US100 -0.02% but still up +3.67% on the week. In Europe GER40 closed -0.6%, CAC40 – 0.29%.
*Commodities – USOil is digesting last Friday’s rally, now -0.61% at $85.48, the spread against UKOil has reduced to $2.97. Copper flat at $385 after sellers emerged at $390 on Friday.
*Gold – still hovering around $1940, XAG pulled back powerfully from $25 ($24.18 now).

LATER TODAY: German Trade Balance, Switzerland GDP, EU Sentix confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech

INTERESTING MOVER: TESLA -5.06% at $245.01 after lowering the US prices of its Model S and X for the seventh time in 2023, now $30k and $40k respectively cheaper than at the beginning of the year. The price was rejected by the 50MA and the MACD is negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th September 2023.

Market Update – September 5 – RBA on hold, Chinese services deteriorate after a Monday without US lead.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

First of all a reminder: US and Canadian cash markets will be closed today because of the Labour Day celebration, obviously resulting in diminished flows this afternoon. Going back in chronological order, APAC is led by the excellent performance of the China50 and especially Hong Kong where a surge on real estate stocks helped the indices to add 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. This comes after embattled Country Garden reportedly won approval to extend payments for an onshore Private Bond and is now up 7.9% (just out the wire they are trying to get financing in Malaysian Ringgit); the overall Mainland Properties Index is +7.32%. This week there will be important data from this hemisphere with the RBA rate decision and the Chinese trade balance.

Friday’s NFP figure was slightly better than expected (+187k vs +170k expected) but at the same time the previous two readings were revised downwards by 100k, while the unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.8% (3.5% expected) also as a result of an increase in labour force participation (62.8% vs 62.6%). There are more people seeking employment and this is probably one of the factors that led to a fractional decrease in Average Hourly Earnings. Overall, we emerge from the week with the impression that the labour market is finally starting to slow down.

Relative Performances by Sector, August

Yields and USD reacted by plummeting shortly after the data, before totally reverting the move and ending the day up; the long-end has experienced the heavier selling pressure, resulting in the curve steepening.

Crude oil soared again (+2.30%) with the EIA and API data showing considerable pressure on stocks during the week probably due to the effect of several months of production cuts. At the same time, Copper hit $390 before sellers emerged, adding to its 6.50% rally since mid August on decent Chinese Manufacturing data.

*FX – USDIndex recovered 104 (104.09 now), EURUSD turned below 1.08 (1.07865, GBPUSD just north of 1.26 (1.2609). USDJPY sits above 146 once again, USDCNH 7.2667.
*Stocks – US30 closed higher on Friday and notched its best week since July. US500 +0.2%, US100 -0.02% but still up +3.67% on the week. In Europe GER40 closed -0.6%, CAC40 – 0.29%.
*Commodities – USOil is digesting last Friday’s rally, now -0.61% at $85.48, the spread against UKOil has reduced to $2.97. Copper flat at $385 after sellers emerged at $390 on Friday.
*Gold – still hovering around $1940, XAG pulled back powerfully from $25 ($24.18 now).

LATER TODAY: German Trade Balance, Switzerland GDP, EU Sentix confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech

INTERESTING MOVER: TESLA -5.06% at $245.01 after lowering the US prices of its Model S and X for the seventh time in 2023, now $30k and $40k respectively cheaper than at the beginning of the year. The price was rejected by the 50MA and the MACD is negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 6th September 2023.


Market Update – September 6 – Saudis, Russia extend voluntary production cuts.




US stocks fell on Tuesday – with the exception of the US100 – weighed down by higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields. Saudi Arabia will extend its 1 million barrel per day voluntary oil production cut until the end of the year, according to the state-owned Saudi Press Agency, and the cut adds to the 1.66 million barrels per day that other OPEC members have put in place until the end of 2024. Russia, through its Deputy Prime Minister Novak, also pledged to extend its 300k bpd cuts until the end of December, and will review the measure on a monthly basis. UKOil traded above $90 till a few minutes ago (now $89.84) and USOil went as high as $88 at some point yesterday. This was immediately reflected firstly in US yields, which rose 6bps on the 10-year, and the USD also benefited. The phantom of inflation may not yet be vanquished with the main raw material of our energy-intensive societies rising by 30% in just over two months. Stocks have fallen: airline and cruise stocks obviously suffered but all sectors except Energy, Technology and Consumer discretionary went down. European indices also dropped as economic data for the region came in mixed. Eurozone producer prices fell 7.6% in July from a year ago. But business activity in August dropped at the steepest rate in nearly three years. Overnight the Australian GDP figure showed a slowdown compared to the previous quarter, but was less marked than expected.


Sectorial Etf Performances


*FX – USDIndex hit its highest level since 10 March, now at 104.64. USDJPY at 2023 highs, 147.08 now but traded as high as 147.815. USDCNH slides to 7.31 but previously touched 7.325. EURUSD -0.61% at 1.0737 now close to critical levels, GBPUSD at 1.2581 with its price clearly below a trendline.
*Stocks – Flattish Chinese indices, JPN225 +0.77% at 33227, AUS200 -0.75%. US Futures all aligned at -0.07% right now, EU Futures -0.2%/-0.3%. Yesterday Materials -1.85%, Industrials -1.68%, Utilities -1.22%.
*Commodities – USOil touched $88.05, trading at $86.50 right now; UKOil rose as high as $91.12 now at $89.83.
*Gold – pressured again, -0.56% yesterday now flat at $1926. XAG dropped -1.67%, further down -0.33% at $23.45 now.


LATER TODAY: Germany Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, US Trade Balance, PMIs, Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision, Fed Beige Book.


INTERESTING MOVER: USOil added another +0.84% ($86.7) to its more than 2 month long 30% rally. Resistances at $88.5/$89 and $92.5/$93 areas, support in the $83.5/$84 area. MACD, RSI positive, Price above 50d-200d MAs that recently crossed to the upside.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th September 2023.

Market Update – September 7 – Futures negative on Oil, rates rise, weak data; EU GDP ahead.

European markets are heading for a lower open today (Thursday) with investors looking ahead to the Q2 GDP and employment change over the same period. Data continues to come in very weak from Germany where Industrial Production just showed a further decline after Factory Orders plummeted again yesterday (-11.7% m/m). This also plays a role in last night’s weak Chinese imports data, which declined again -7.3% y/y, although this was less than expected. Exports also contracted and to stay within the same region, the Australian Trade Balance deteriorated by about 2 billion in July. Yesterday the BOC left rates unchanged at 5% while the FED’s Beige Book saw an unusual abuse of the word ”recession” (used 15 times), despite it having clearly disappeared from the last corporate earnings reports.

Equity markets are weak while Rates and USD keep going higher. The Chinese have given up defending their onshore FX exchange rate (CNY) and it has broken above recent highs. Oil is unstoppable on the back of recent news and apparent supply shortage. EU GDP is expected to have been positive in Q2 (+0.3%) and also on a yearly basis (+0.6%). US Jobless claims will give us new insight into the labour market which seems to have slowed down as per last week’s data.

*FX – USDIndex +0.05% at 104.87, USDJPY touched 147.87, now -0.14% at 147.47, USDCNH 7.329, Cable – 0.07% and < 1.25, AUDUSD +0.11% @ 0.6387.
*Stocks – EU Futures -0.3% (both GER40 and FRA40), US30 -0.20%, US100 -0.34%, AAPL, NVDA >-3% yesterday.
*Commodities – USOil giving up some of the recent gains but still close to recent highs, -0.43% @ $87.18, UKOil trades @ $90.26.
*Gold – $1917,83, mainly flat. XAG leads the way, -0.47% at $23.06.

LATER TODAY: EU Q2 employment change, EU Q2 GDP, US Jobless claims, FED’s Williams, Bostic, Bowman, BOC’s Governor speech.

INTERESTING MOVER: GBPUSD (-0.26% this morning @ 1.2475) remains heavier than other peers, has broken recent lows and is heading toward 1.2440 support, 200MA at 1.2430, weak RSI, Negative MACD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th September 2023.

Market Update – September 8 – Japanese & EU GDP miss, CNH breaks 2023 lows.


Asia-Pacific markets were lower on Friday as Japan released revised second quarter gross domestic product figures (+1.2% vs +1.3% expected, down from 1.5%) and Hong Kong cancelled the morning trading session due to a storm warning. Overnight the US100 fell for a 4th session, weighed by Apple after a report that China is allegedly banning government workers from using iPhones; NVDA, AMD, Qualcomm slipped as well. US30 managed to edge up 0.17% as defensive sectors outperformed (Utilities the best one). Initial Jobless claims fell to 216k last week, below estimates and hinting to a still tight job market after last week’s streak of data. Unit labor costs rose 2.2% (1.9%). A ”positive” note came from Walmart that announced it is lowering its workers entry pay. EU GDP and employment change in Q2 disappointed yesterday and EU stocks are down for the 7th day in a row. German CPI/HICP is just out, in line (CPI +6.1% y/y).

This morning a poll of 69 economists interviewed by Bloomberg showed that the majority of them (39) are seeing an ECB pause in September, with some odds (33) of a new hike by the end of the year. Finally, USDCNH is trading at 7.3528 and has broken 2023 highs the day after CNY did so, showing the Chinese authorities are giving up protecting the 7.30 barrier.

*FX – USDIndex -0.20% at 104.82 retreated back below 105, EURUSD sits in the low 1.07s, Cable lingers below 1.25 and USDJPY trades on a 147 handle (147.15).
*Stocks – EU Futures +0.3% (both GER40 and FRA40), US30 +0.14%, US100 +0.31%, AAPL – 2.92%, AMD -2.46%, Qualcomm – 7.22%.
*Commodities – USOil -0.36% at $86.43, UKOil loses $90, $89.59 now. Strikes began at Australian Chevron LNG plants.
*Gold – +0.38% at $1926.80, XAG +0.82% at $23.15, Palladium +1.15% at $1228 is trying to rebound from 2023 lows.

LATER TODAY: Canadian Unemployment Rate, Fed’s Bostic & Barr.

INTERESTING MOVER: Apple -2.92% at $177.56 is down -6.54% in 2 sessions on heavy volumes after US-China tech-related tensions arose again. It managed to recover the $176 level after opening at 175.18 and hitting a low at $173.54. The MACD is neutral and RSI slightly below 50. Price is between the MM50 ($186.50) and MM200 ($164).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th September 2023.

Market Update – September 11 – BOJ & PBOC Caused Turmoil.

G20 wraps up, while in Asia central banks have shaken the markets this morning. Verbal intervention from Japan and China helped to bolster Yuan and Yen and saw the DXY dollar index correcting to 104.637, from a close of 105.09 on Friday. Treasuries fell slightly across tenors Monday as traders await US inflation due later this week. Stock markets had a mixed start to the week, while bonds corrected, as most equity indexes found buyers. This turned USDJPY around, with Yen rallies with Yields after BOJ Ueda comments on negative rates fuelled rate hike speculations. USDCNH collapsed just before hitting last year’s highs – Yuan off 16-year lows after PBoC sets strong reference rate and threatens to punish market disruption.

*FX – USDIndex correcting to 104.45, from a close of 105.09 on Friday, EURUSD turned higher to 1.0730 from 1.0683 lows last week, GBPUSD broke 20-day SMA and still holds above it at 1.2526. Against the weaker US Dollar, the Aussie and the Kiwi were among the biggest beneficiaries, each rising close to 1% to hit roughly one-week highs.
*Stocks – JPN225 correcting -0.4% and the Hang Seng losing more than 1%, the latter in catch up trade, after markets were closed on Friday due to adverse weather conditions. The CSI 300 managed to lift 0.7%, the ASX 0.5%, and futures are higher in Europe and the US.
*Commodities – USOil dips shortlived after technical rally, however it remains above the key $84 level, extending gains above 11-month resistance. Currently settled at $86.56. Gold retests $1930 once again.

TODAY: The European Commission is to release its summer interim economic forecast. The central bank’s chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Kent Invicta Chamber of Commerce.

Key Movers: USDJPY drifted (-1.18%) after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that there may be sufficient information by year-end to judge if wages will continue to rise, which is a key factor in deciding whether to pare back its super-easy policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12 September 2023.


Market Update – September 12 – Greenback rebounds ahead of US Inflation.


Wall Street closed slightly higher amid strength in big tech. Tesla climbed 10% after Morgan Stanley boosted its outlook on the stock based on expectations on the impacts of the “Dojo” computer. Treasuries posted small losses amid a lack of buyers. Bloomberg suggested it was the smallest range on the 10-year in over 2 years. The 10-year was up 2.5 bps to 4.295%. It was generally contained by the 4.30% level as well as the 4.34% cycle peak from August 21, the highest since late 2007. Today, European futures are higher, US futures slightly lower, as markets wait for US inflation numbers.


This morning: UK wage growth higher than expected – a bit of a negative surprise for the BoE. The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged, jobless claims nudged up 0.9K in the more up to date August report and the July reading was revised down. Mixed signals for the BoE about the overall situation in the labour market, but it seems payroll growth is slowing, which ties in with survey data from the PMI reports. Despite this, wage growth remains uncomfortably higher and the data would back at least one more rate hike from the BoE this month. BoE’s Mann warns against early end to tightening cycle.


*FX – USDIndex lost a little ground, albeit after 8 straight weeks of gains, currently at its lows at 104.63 from 104.37. EURUSD drifted to 1.0725 from 1.0768 and GBPUSD higher after the data at 1.2529. USDJPY higher at 146.85 but Yen holds yesterday’s gains.
*Stocks – The US100 rallied 1.14% on the back of a surge in big tech. The US500 was 0.67% and the US30 was 0.25% firmer. JPN225 also jumped nearly 1%, but elsewhere across Asia the move higher was muted and China bourses traded narrowly mixed, with the CSI 300 down -0.1% and the Hang Seng rising a mere 0.1%. European futures are higher.
*Disney and Charter gained. Both stocks climbed after reports of a deal to restore channels including ESPN and ABC to the cable operator’s subscribers. Warner Bros. Discovery also rose.
*Nvidia fell. The chipmaker edged lower, extending a rocky September. Advanced Micro Devices also declined. J.M. Smucker shares fell after the snack giant agreed to buy Twinkies owner Hostess.
*Commodities – USOil higher as attention shifts to outlooks from OPEC & US.
*Bitcoin rose after dropping to the lowest since June on Monday


TODAY: The Apple product event, German ZEW Economic Sentiment. OPEC and US EIA will both publish monthly market reports later.



Key Movers: BTCUSD rallied by +2.77% today.


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[Geraldhet]

Даркнет: Мифы и Реальность 2krn Слово "даркнет" стало широко известным в последние годы и вызывает у многих людей интерес и одновременно страх. Даркнет, также известный как "темная сеть" или "черный интернет", представляет собой скрытую сеть сайтов, недоступных обычным поисковым системам и браузерам. Даркнет существует на основе технологии, известной как Tor (The Onion Router), которая обеспечивает анонимность и безопасность для пользователей. Tor использует множество узлов, чтобы перенаправить сетевой трафик и скрыть источник данных. Эти узлы представляют собой добровольные компьютеры по всему миру, которые помогают обрабатывать и перенаправлять информацию без возможности отслеживания. В даркнете можно найти самые разнообразные сайты и сервисы: от интернет-магазинов, продающих незаконные товары, до форумов обмена информацией и блогов со свободной речью. Присутствует также и контент, который не имеет никакого незаконного характера, но предпочитает существовать вне пространства обычного интернета. Однако, даркнет также обретает зловещую репутацию, так как на нем происходит и незаконная деятельность. От продажи наркотиков и оружия до организации киберпреступлений и торговли личными данными – все это можно найти в недрах даркнета. Кроме того, также существуют специализированные форумы, где планируются преступления, обсуждаются террористические акты и распространяется детская порнография. Эти незаконные действия привлекают внимание правоохранительных органов и ведут к попыткам борьбы с даркнетом. Важно отметить, что анонимность даркнета имеет как положительные, так и отрицательные аспекты. С одной стороны, она может быть полезной для диссидентов и журналистов, которые могут использовать даркнет для обеспечения конфиденциальности и передачи информации о нарушениях прав человека. С другой стороны, она позволяет преступникам и хакерам уклоняться от ответственности и оставаться в полной тени. Вопрос безопасности в даркнете также играет важную роль. В силу своей анонимности, даркнет привлекает хакеров, которые настраивают ловушки и проводят атаки на пользователей. Компьютерные вирусы, мошенничество и кража личных данных – это только некоторые из проблем, с которыми пользователи могут столкнуться при использовании даркнета. В заключение, даркнет – это сложное и многогранный инструмент, который находится в постоянном конфликте между светлыми и темными сторонами. В то время как даркнет может обеспечивать конфиденциальность и свободу информационного обмена, он также служит местом для незаконных действий и усилий преступников. Поэтому, как и в любой сфере, важно остерегаться и быть осведомленным о возможных рисках.