HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 21st November 2023.

NASDAQ: Upcoming NVIDIA Earnings

The US100 declined during this morning’s futures market and also ended Friday’s session lower. However, the instrument is not witnessing any significant downward pressure or momentum, but continues to honor the established price range. According to the Chicago Exchange the possibilities of another rate hike over the next year are virtually zero and 30% of experts believe the Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Fund Rate by 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2024. With the hiking cycle at an end, the market could experience ideal market conditions for a bullish market.

Another positive factor for the US100 and the stocks market in general is the decline in the Dollar and Bond yields. The US Dollar Index has declined by 3.20% this month and continued to decline further this morning. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond yield has dropped to its lowest since September 2023. If the Dollar and Bond yields continue to decline throughout the day, the possibility of investor sentiment increasing grows. As a result, the US100 could potentially rise and break the $15,871 resistance level.

Both Asian and European stocks traded higher at the futures market open. Again, if European and Asian investors show a high-risk appetite, something similar may be witnessed in the US.

Over the next two days, the price of the US100 is likely to be influenced by two major events: the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes and NVIDIA’s third quarterly earnings report of 2023. NVIDIA is the 5th most influential stock within the US100 and holds a weight of 4.58%. The company is again expected to make higher earnings and revenue compared to the previous quarters. The US100 will find significant support, if the earnings per share and revenue is higher than expected.

NVIDIA stocks have increased by 19% over the past month and 2% in the past week. The price movement indicates shareholders are confident ahead of the quarterly earnings release.

Currently the US100 remains above major trend lines and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. However, the instrument is trading within a retracement. Therefore, investors will be keen to see it reach $15,831 which will be enough momentum to obtain a potential buy signal on short-term charts.

GBPUSD

The Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden advised markets that the central bank will keep interest rates high for at least 6 months to bring inflation back to its 2.0% target over the medium term. Analysts predict that the central bank will begin reducing borrowing costs in May or June 2024, with three 25 basis point adjustments planned by the end of next year, but for now its pressure on mortgage holders will continue. Currently, it is believed the Fed will cut before the BOE, which could support the Cable. According to a survey by consulting company Savanta, 58% of respondents have late payments now versus 49% the same month last year.

The latest wave on the GBPUSD is a correcting wave aiming for the previous high at 1.24638. However, investors will be monitoring if the exchange rate finds support at this level similar to previous price action patterns.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st November 2023.


NASDAQ Break Resistance to New 23-Month High.


The US100 broke through a major resistance level, rising to the highest level since January 2022. The instrument rose by 1.20% on Monday forming its fourth consecutive bullish candlestick on a weekly chart. The technology sector in particular witnessed a surge in demand due to its exposure to “growth stocks” which are benefiting from the end to the hiking cycle. In addition to this, the US100 is already pricing in a rate cut as early as March.


The 10 top stocks holding the highest “weight” within the index all rose in value on Monday and from the top 20 stocks only PepsiCo saw a slight decline (-0.14%). From the US100’s components 90% of the stocks ended the day higher. NVIDIA was the best-performing component, rising 2.26% as investors await the release of the third quarter earnings report scheduled for this evening. Analysts expect NVIDIA’s earnings per share to rise 20% compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, the company quarterly revenue is believed to have risen 16%. During this morning’s pre-market hours, the stocks have risen a further 0.30%.


The 10-year bond yields are trading 0.027% lower during this morning’s Asian session and the US Dollar Index is down 0.15%. Both bond yields and the weaker Dollar could potentially prompt investors to increase exposure in the stock market. However, traders should keep in mind investors may look to buy at the discounted price. This could potentially pressure the NASDAQ in the short-term.


Nonetheless, a key influential factor will be tonight’s Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes. The event is still likely to trigger volatility regardless of the fact that the Meeting Minutes is a “lagging” indicator. If the market senses a tone of dovishness or caution, traders will deem the meeting as indicating a potential cut. This is because inflation has declined by 0.5% since the meeting. Indication of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024 could indicate the continuation of the bullish trend.


A concern for investors was the mini-crisis related to Sam Altman’s sacking as CEO of OpenAI on November 17th. However, Microsoft seems to be emerging as the victor as Mr Altman potentially may join as a Chief Executive of the new research lab. Microsoft stocks, which hold more than 10% of the NASDAQ, rose by 2.05% on Monday and a further 0.28% in pre-market open hours.


GBPUSD


The Bank of England’s Governor yesterday evening advised markets that the regulator may again consider another interest rate hike. According to Bloomberg, almost all analysts are not taking the comment seriously, but see it as an indication that a rate cut in the UK may be further away than originally thought.


The Cable rose by 0.43% on Monday and is trading 0.30% higher during this morning’s Asian session. Early this afternoon the Governor of the Bank of England will again speak, but this time testifying in parliament. Investors will be closely scrutinizing comments looking for confirmation of yesterday’s point of view. The US Dollar Index is again declining this morning; however, investors will also be monitoring the Dollar’s reaction after this evening’s meeting minutes. The Pound on the other hand is experiencing “mixed” price movement against other currencies.


Gold


The price of Gold ended the day slightly lower on Monday but saw a surge in buyers towards the end of the day’s sessions. This morning the price of Gold has risen a whopping 0.81% but has risen to a previous resistance level and price range. Therefore, investors will be monitoring if the asset forms a breakout and continues its bullish trend or if the asset moves into a strong price range which remains intact in the medium term.


According to the report of the US CFTC, last week the number of net speculative positions dropped to 155.4 thousand from 166.2 thousand a week earlier. Sellers are actively exiting the asset. Last week, buyers increased the number of contracts by 2.338 thousand, while the sellers closed 6.150 thousand contracts. This is signaling an increase in the upward dynamics but traders question whether Gold can maintain its momentum above $2,000.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Eftymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd November 2023.

Market Changes Stance After FOMC Meeting Minutes.

EURUSD – Dollar Climbs After FOMC Meeting Minutes

The EURUSD ended the day lower for the first time after climbing for 3 consecutive days. The minutes of the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve supported the Dollar but also had factors which concerned Dollar buyers. Certain members of the Fed’s Committee stated they expect the rate to remain at a high level for “quite a long time”, while others would not give a clear indication of a cut and that rates would remain higher for longer. However, some economists view this as dovish considering inflation has now declined. In addition, the regulator does not exclude the possibility of further tightening of monetary conditions if the rate of decline in inflation continues to slow down. This is where the Dollar can potentially benefit. The question is whether the Fed will consider one last 0.25% hike if inflation refuses to drop below 3%.

Economists’ views have already slightly shifted since the Fed’s Meeting Minutes. According to the Chicago exchange there is now a 5% possibility of a hike in the next 3 months. Previously, the only possibility was a pause for the near-term future.

The US Dollar Index is trading 0.17% higher this morning and is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the Euro is also increasing in value against all major competitors. Therefore, investors should be cautious about an attempted correction back to 1.09225 and 1.09607. The Euro is being supported by the European Central Bank’s stance on keeping interest rates high for “several more quarters”. The Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said that interest rates in the eurozone had reached a plateau, where they were likely to remain. However, if the possibilities of another hike from the Fed rise, the Euro may struggle to hold onto gains.

If the price declines below 1.08995, sell signals are likely to materialize. Whereas, if the price increases above 1.09225, buy signals will gain momentum again. If the exchange rate had fallen a further 0.25%, the instrument would have broken recent support barriers.

This afternoon investors will be monitoring 3 economic events: The US Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders and Revised Consumer Sentiment. If the Unemployment claims remain stable or lower than expected, while the Goods Orders and UoM Sentiment remain higher, the Dollar could potentially gain momentum.

US100 – NASDAQ Continues Bullish Trend Pattern

The US100 declined 0.75% during yesterday’s trading session but continues to follow the traditional upward trend pattern. Currently the asset is trading above the 60-candlestick trend line and is hovering above neutral on Oscillators. Therefore, a further impulse wave is still possible. However, of the top 5 stocks holding the highest weight within the index, only 1 stock is trading higher during this morning’s pre-market hours (Microsoft +0.12%). Though investors will monitor if this changes when the US open nears.

According to market analysts, there is now a slightly higher possibility of one last interest rate hike, however, the possibility is very slim. According to Bloomberg, if inflation does not rise in December and unemployment remains around the 4% mark, a pause will remain almost a certain outcome. The bond market this morning is significantly declining, dropping 0.022%, which is positive for the US100. Both German and French indices are trading higher in the European market open which is also another positive indication for the US100.

NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report was significantly higher than expected which is positive “fundamentally”, but so far has not pushed the stock higher. The company’s Earnings Per Share were 19% higher and Revenue rose 25% from the previous quarter. However, the stock has dropped 1.74% in after hours trading. Investors will monitor if demand grows once today’s session opens.

Interesting Mover: USDIndex plunged the most in a year, dropping 2 big figures intraday to a low of 103.81 before closing at 104.05. Next support is at 102.7-103. area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Eftymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 28th November 2023.

Market Recap: Bonds up; Stocks weaker; DXY set for the worst month in a year.

Market Trends:

*Asian stocks fell in response to declines in US and European markets, triggered by hawkish signals from central banks on interest rates.
*Bonds extended gains amid growing conviction that central banks in Europe and the US have concluded rate hikes, with expectations of potential rate cuts next year.
*The US Dollar hovered near three-month lows as investors believed the Federal Reserve had completed its rate-hike cycle, with attention focused on an upcoming crucial inflation report.

Central Bank Developments:

*ECB President Lagarde noted that the central bank’s efforts to control price growth are ongoing, citing strong wage growth and an uncertain outlook despite easing inflation pressures in the eurozone.
*CME’s FedWatch indicated a 95% likelihood that the US central bank will maintain unchanged interest rates next month, but there is a growing possibility of a rate cut gaining traction in mid-2024.

Global Economic Indicators:

*Australia experienced an unexpected decline in retail sales for October, with consumers cutting spending on everything except food.
*Germany saw a slight improvement in consumer sentiment as the Christmas month approached, but it remained at a very low level, attributed to high inflation, indicating no signs of a sustainable recovery in Europe’s largest economy.

Financial Markets Performance:

*Weaker-than-expected home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index weighed on Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.396%.
*JPN225 closed 0.12% lower at 33,408.39, despite being up 8% for the month, failing to surpass its highest closing level in three decades reached on July 3 in recent attempts.
*JPY gained momentum as the USDIndex hit a three-month low on weaker-than-expected data, while EURUSD dipped to 1.0937, breaching the bottom of a one-week channel with the next support at 1.0925.
*AUD rose to 0.6630, reaching a four-month high, while NZD touched a seven-week high of 0.6114.
*USOIL eased 0.13% to $74.74, and UKOIL dropped below $80 as oil prices fluctuated ahead of an OPEC+ meeting later in the week.
*Gold reached $2,013.80, hitting a fresh six-month peak of $2,017.89 earlier in the session.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th November 2023.

Market Recap: Dollar slumped; Gold & Oil supported on rising Fed rate cut bets.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*US consumer confidence improved better than expected, but it follows big downward revisions to October. The consumer confidence rise joins a Michigan sentiment decline to a 6-month low. All the surveys face headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and fears about developments in the Middle East.
*Fed’s Waller (the most hawkish Fed) & Goolsbee are “increasingly confident” that policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. BUT Fed Governor Bowman reiterated she favors more rate hikes if the progress on inflation stalls.
*The RBNZ warned this morning that further policy tightening might be needed if price pressures did not ease.
*German import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% m/m in October. However, annual import price inflation seems to have bottomed out in August and the trend of ever deeper deflation has been reversed now.

Market Trends

*Fed funds futures rallied on the dovish read. Implied rates popped to suggest about a 70% chance for a rate cut as soon as the May 1 policy meeting, versus about a 55% risk a week ago. However, a significant downturn in growth could spark the more aggressive easing posture as the market is reflecting.
*Treasury bulls took less than hawkish Fedspeak and ran with it. Short term bond yields dropped sharply, to the lowest since July and August.
*Stocks in Asia and US are fractionally higher after a mixed trade most of the session, as Treasury yields and USD hit multi-month lows. JPN225 fell at 33,321 as investors continue their pause in buying.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The US Dollar bears chased the Buck lower. USDIndex fell to 102.36, the weakest since August. – Its worst monthly performance in a year!
*EURUSD broke 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, breaching 1.1016. Cable is at 1.2730.
*USDZAR extended to 18.51 lows, JPY jumped to its strongest point since mid-September at 146.66. The NZD surged more than 1% to July’s high of 0.6207.
*USOIL & Gold climbed to $77 from $74 lows, and to $2051.93 per ounce, the highest since May, respectively. The weaker US Dollar, global uncertainties, and rising Fed rate cut bets supported Gold and Oil.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 30th November 2023.

Market Recap: Stocks loosing their steam; Oil rallies ahead of OPEC+.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The US GDP report implied a Q3 productivity growth boost to a robust 5.1% from 4.7%, after an unrevised 3.6% Q2 clip. There was a Q3 growth rate trimming for the hours-worked index to 1.0% from 1.1% due to weakness in the hours-worked data in the last employment report.
*Fed rate cut bets deepened thanks to the lack of pushback from most Fed officials, and expectations for this pivot continued to drive the markets. There was no impact from the 5.2% GDP print.
*China’s manufacturing sector contracting for a 2nd consecutive month in November and performing worse than forecast indicates weakening momentum despite increasing government efforts to boost growth.
*EU: French inflation dropped sharply & German retail sales bounced in October. It was the first real improvement since May, which is likely also related to the moderation in inflation.

Market Trends

*Treasury yields richened further, and especially at the front end. Fed funds futures brought forward an easing in the policy rate to May from June. The curve dis-inverted to -38 bps on the bull steepener.
*Bonds are set to post the best month ever. Concurrently, the rate cut frenzy has boosted EGBs too, sending the global index to its best since 2008 the financial crisis.
*Stocks traded cautiously and lost steam into the close, as several Big Tech companies offset gains. The US30 gained 0.04%, while the US100 dropped -0.16%, with the US500 off -0.09%. Asian stocks were mixed as well, with CSI300 adding 0.5%.
*Meta fell 2%, Alphabet gave up 1.6% and Microsoft dropped 1%. General Motors surged 9.4% after the company announced a big stock buyback.
*The VIX was up 2.2% to 12.97, recovering from the 12.46 low from last week that had not been challenged since January 2020.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The US Dollar steadied at 102.80, with a 102 handle for a 3rd straight day. It’s slumped from the October 3 peak of 107.00.
*EURUSD reversed below 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, at 1.0945. It remains well above 1.09.
*USDJPY retests a potential break of its 146.70 low for a 2nd day in a row, USDCAD extends below 1.36 confirming an ascending head and shoulders formation in the daily chart.
*Gold edged up 0.16% to $2044.18 per ounce.
*USOIL climbed 2% to $78.79 per barrel ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The delayed meeting of the expanded OPEC+ group will be held online.
*Bitcoin still hovering near the $38,000-mark.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 1st December 2023.

Market Recap: A November to remember!

A November to remember. The markets were all over the place to end the month. While the FOMC is still the focal point, repositioning after some big moves on the month and positioning into year-end were the main drivers. The FOMC has reached peak rates, according to Fed funds futures, and rate cuts are the next action, now fully priced for May.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*PCE: Data has been mixed but generally reflect progress on the FOMC’s inflation goal and has convinced markets that rate cuts are underway — core PCE fell to 3.5% y/y from 3.7% y/y previously, but is still well above the 2% target. US pending home sales declined.
*OPEC+ announced an additional 1 mln barrels in cuts. The cuts will be announced individually by members, according to delegates. The Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its down voluntary cut of 1 million barrels.

Market Trends

*Best month in 40 years! Treasuries rallied on FOMC expectations. But profit taking ahead of comments from Chair Powell today unwound some of the froth. The curve steepened to -36 bps versus -50 bps Monday.
*Stocks: Wall Street befittingly finished mixed. The US30 rallied 8.9% with the US100 up 10.7%. For the month the US30 was up 8.8%, its second best November since 1980, according to Bloomberg.
*For the S&P, 10 of the 11 sectors are higher on the month.
*Asia Stock markets were under pressure overnight, with the Hang Seng underperforming, despite a better than expected China Caixin manufacturing PMI that managed to lift above the 50 point no change mark again.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex finished at 103.40 recovering from the slide to the 102.36 the prior two days after weaker than expected European and Chinese data.
*EURUSD broke below 1.09, indicating a possible reversal of the 2-month rally, however 1.0830-1.0860 remains the key support area.
*USDJPY rebounds to 148.30, USDCAD dips further into 1-year triangle with immediate support at 1.35, while GBPUSD settles above 1.26 despite US Dollar appreciation.
*Gold slipped about -0.4% to the $2036 area on the rise in yields and some fading of haven trades.
*USOIL slumped 2.9% to $75.59 after spiking 2.2% to $79.60 after OPEC+ announced a further production cut.
*Key Mover: EURCHF down by 1.26%. Next Support levels: 0.95, 0.9440 and 0.9375.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 1st December 2023.

Market Recap: A November to remember!

A November to remember. The markets were all over the place to end the month. While the FOMC is still the focal point, repositioning after some big moves on the month and positioning into year-end were the main drivers. The FOMC has reached peak rates, according to Fed funds futures, and rate cuts are the next action, now fully priced for May.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*PCE: Data has been mixed but generally reflect progress on the FOMC’s inflation goal and has convinced markets that rate cuts are underway — core PCE fell to 3.5% y/y from 3.7% y/y previously, but is still well above the 2% target. US pending home sales declined.
*OPEC+ announced an additional 1 mln barrels in cuts. The cuts will be announced individually by members, according to delegates. The Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its down voluntary cut of 1 million barrels.

Market Trends

*Best month in 40 years! Treasuries rallied on FOMC expectations. But profit taking ahead of comments from Chair Powell today unwound some of the froth. The curve steepened to -36 bps versus -50 bps Monday.
*Stocks: Wall Street befittingly finished mixed. The US30 rallied 8.9% with the US100 up 10.7%. For the month the US30 was up 8.8%, its second best November since 1980, according to Bloomberg.
*For the S&P, 10 of the 11 sectors are higher on the month.
*Asia Stock markets were under pressure overnight, with the Hang Seng underperforming, despite a better than expected China Caixin manufacturing PMI that managed to lift above the 50 point no change mark again.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex finished at 103.40 recovering from the slide to the 102.36 the prior two days after weaker than expected European and Chinese data.
*EURUSD broke below 1.09, indicating a possible reversal of the 2-month rally, however 1.0830-1.0860 remains the key support area.
*USDJPY rebounds to 148.30, USDCAD dips further into 1-year triangle with immediate support at 1.35, while GBPUSD settles above 1.26 despite US Dollar appreciation.
*Gold slipped about -0.4% to the $2036 area on the rise in yields and some fading of haven trades.
*USOIL slumped 2.9% to $75.59 after spiking 2.2% to $79.60 after OPEC+ announced a further production cut.
*Key Mover: EURCHF down by 1.26%. Next Support levels: 0.95, 0.9440 and 0.9375.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th December 2023.

Market Recap: Fears of overbought condition prevail!

The markets giveth and the market taketh away. Red proliferated the screens as profit taking unwound some of Friday’s aggressive rallies. There were no real catalysts to the move, just fears that markets were overbought and rate cut bets too optimistic.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% at the final meeting of the year. The board, flagged, however, that progress in bringing inflation back to target was slower than anticipated. They noted uncertainty over the global outlook due to the Chinese economy and overseas conflicts.
*Aussie: Markets are still pricing in some risk of further tightening from the RBA, and the inflation numbers for the last quarter of the year will likely be decisive for the February 6 meeting.
*China: Services PMI expanded at a quicker pace in November, which was the highest in three months, as demand strengthened in Asia’s largest economy.

Market Trends

*Treasury yields closed just off session highs.
*Asia stock markets sold off, following on from a weaker close on Wall Street. China bourses underperformed, despite a stronger Services PMI.
*Stocks: Wall Street was underwater from the get-go and closed with modest declines. The US100 slumped -0.84% on weakness in big tech, including Meta on news CEO Zuckerberg was selling shares. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia also declined. Alaska Air dropped after announcing its acquisition of Hawaiian Air. US500 was off -0.54% and the US30 was down -0.11%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was one of the few gainers on the day, rebounding to 103.642 (intraday peak of 103.852) following Friday’s drop to 103.268.
*EURUSD declined to 1.08, indicating apotential retest of 1.0760, as the buck is firmer versus all its G10 peers as rate cut speculation is keeping a lid on EUR and GBP.
*USDJPY steady above 146.50.
*Gold has corrected somewhat as the US Dollar found a footing and Treasury yields lifted. It is currently steady at $2030 – $2040 area.
*Oil remained under pressure as USOIL is currently trading below $74 as markets remain distinctly unimpressed by the voluntary output cuts announced by OPEC+. With growth data suggesting subdued demand that is leaving fears of a sizeable supply overhang through 2024 on the table.
*Bitcoin extended higher and breached $42,337 for the first time since early 2022 (roughly 153% higher this year).
*Key Mover: Copper (-0.95%), with next Support at 3.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 6th December 2023.

Market Recap: The wait is on for Friday’s jobs report!

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*Treasury yields extended lower after the larger than expected decline in job openings. The data added to beliefs that the labor market is cooling and that the FOMC is done hiking, with the next move a cut in the coming months.
*Fed funds futures are reflecting about a 65% bet for a 25 bp March cut, with May fully priced in and then some.
*German manufacturing orders plunged. Orders corrected -4.6% in the three months to October, which is flagging recession risks and ongoing weakness even going into 2024.

Market Trends

*Asian stock markets rallied, with Japanese markets leading the way. Futures are also higher across Europe and the US as markets buy in to hopes that major central banks have reached peak rates and will start to cut interest rates next year.
*GER40 is at all-time highs supported by slowing inflation and the prospect of lower interest rates next year boosting the country’s biggest stocks. It gained 8.8 % over the past month during a stock market rally on both sides of the Atlantic underpinned by growing hopes that major central banks have finished raising rates.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex is to the upside for a 5th day, retesting the 104 level, as it found relative firmness as the markets priced in a more aggressive easing stance from the ECB than the Fed.
*EURUSD below 1.08, extending its 1-week dip, post a sharp correction in German manufacturing orders that added to concerns that growth is faltering. This is coupled with weaker than expected inflation data for November that will add to pressure on the ECB ahead of next week’s council meeting.
*Gold & Oil: The strength in the US Dollar weighed on commodities with USOIL dropping -0.88% to $72.10 and Gold falling -0.48% lower to $2009.97. Profit taking has knocked bullion from the record high of $2072.22 on December 1.
*Bitcoin hit 2022 highs at 44429. Currently it is traded at 43395 in an overbought condition, indicating a near term consolidation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.