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[Andreasrlu]

Where is admin? It is about advertisement on your website. Thank.

[HFM]

Date: 4th October 2023.

Market Update – October 4 – On the way to old normal.

Yesterday at 08:30 am ET (New York Time), JOLTS job openings for August again showed an incredibly buoyant labour market with 9.61m new available vacancies versus the 8.8m analysts were expecting. Even though the main target is inflation, this is not what the Fed wants to see and the voice saying ”higher for longer” immediately resonated in traders’ minds. Bonds immediately sold off and the 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007, up 11 bps to 4.80%; Futures on 30y at the same time slid as much as 1.58% with the yield up to 4.924% and 30y mortgage rate approached. There are certainly deeper fundamental reasons, such as the continuing large US deficit at the same time that China and Japan have stopped being net buyers of US debt, with the former selling $40B a month since April and having already dumped $300B since 2021. However, it is not the current levels of rates that are abnormal, but rather those of the last 10 years. The current situation is actually back to the old normal.

More than anything else, another thing caught the eye: after the data, USD immediately surged and broke 150 against the JPY, touching 150.16. And this is where the BOJ finally INTERVENED and caused the pair to fall 290 pips (or nearly 2%) in less than 5 mins. That doesn’t seem to be enough and now the USDJPY is trading back at 149.22: the Japanese currency’s structural weakness is still great at the moment, although the 1-year overnight swap is over 1% and the 3m-10y curve has never been steeper. The intervention has not been confirmed by the Ministry of Finance, and there is some rumour that it may actually have been just a Request For Quote that made primary dealers remove all bids and then triggered stop losses in minor players accounts.

Obviously this is not a good environment for equities and yesterday US equities underperformed their European peers with the US100 down 1.83% and the US30 ending in negative YTD territory (a day after the Russell). The US500 is now testing its 200 MA. The VIX flew above 20 and – some potentially good news – the inversion that can be seen between the spot and 3-month futures has indicated a market bottom in the past. But beware, history – when it repeats itself – almost never does so in exactly the same way.

At least commodities breathed easy and silver rebounded after the previous day’s sell-off.

*FX – USDIndex +0.18% @ 106.93; USDJPY hedging up +0.08% at 149.17, Aussie at 2023 lows (0.6307), Kiwi is today’s laggard, -0.44% at 0.5883.
*Stocks – US Futures negative again and heavy: US500 -0.57% and testing its 200 MA, US100 -0.78%, US30 -0.40% further into negative territory YTD. DAX future is testing 15k right before the cash open. Yesterday AMZN -3.66%, TSLA -2.02%, NVDA -2.82%, MSFT -2.61%.
*Commodities – USOil resumes its decline -0.76% at $88.72, UKOil -0.67%.
*Metals – Gold -0.17% @ $1819.64, XAGUSD @ 21.03, Palladium -1.21% below its ST floor.

Today: highlights include EZ, UK, US Services and Composite PMIs, EZ PPI, Retail Sales, US MBA, ADP, ISM, Durable Goods, OPEC+ JMMC, ECB’s Lagarde.

Interesting Mover: USDJPY -0.03% @ 149 after the shock of the intervention has recovered 2 handles and set 2 levels to be watched, 150 and 147.25 approx, while the trend is still clearly rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[Andreasrlu]

Where is administration? I'ts important. Thank.

[Andreasrlu]

Where is moderator?? It is important. Thank.

[HFM]

Date: 5th October 2023.

Market Update – October 5 – Markets try to take a breather, oil slumps.

Rebounding from some pivotal, psychological levels, the vast majority of world equity indices rose yesterday, helped by a decrease in yields. Buying in the US intensified in the last minutes of trading led by large-cap techs such as TSLA (+5.93%), MSFT & AMZN. US500 was up 0.8%, its largest rise in 3 weeks and US100 settled +1.5% at the end of the day. As mentioned above, after reaching a high of 4.88% during the Asian session, the 10Y benchmark was lower later in the day, ending the day almost 15 bps lower. Part of this was due to the rather worse-than-expected ADP jobs data, which helped consolidate expectations of a further Fed pause in November (now at 80%). One aspect that the financial media are somewhat glossing over as they are concentrating on the gigantic -46% drawdown on the long end of the US curve – is the great steepening of the 2y-10y, now at 32bps (it was -1% at the end of July). Also on the US side, while we anxiously await tomorrow’s NFP data, it should be noted that today marks the end of the suspension of student debt payments decreed after Covid which will probably weigh heavily on many households. In Europe and the UK, better-than-expected composite PMI data helped the respective currencies to do well, while the USDIndex is also near overbought levels.

The big mover of the day was Oil, with crude very heavy (-5.6%) on the day of the OPEC+ JMMC, characterised first by Russia and Saudi Arabia’s apparent willingness to continue with production cuts, then by Novak’s (Russia) statements that ”OPEC+ may tweak its decisions if needed… as we see a record-high global oil demand”.

*FX – USDIndex -0.09% @ 106.43; GBPUSD & EURUSD flat today (1.2137/1.0506) after rising +0.5% & +0.36% respectively yesterday, USDJPY 148.78, USDCAD is -0.06% @ 1.3736 after rising approx. 2.65% since 20/09. Swiss Franc is strengthening, USDCHF-0.08% @ 0.9165.
*Stocks – US and EU futures fractionally negative this morning, -0.1% and -0.2% on average respectively. Yesterday TSLA +5.93%, MSFT +1.78%, GOOGL +2.23% AMZN +1.83%.
*Commodities – USOil rebounded this morning +0.44% at $84.79, UKOil +0.52% @ $86.40.
*Metals – Gold flat @ $1821.47, XAGUSD +0.57% @ 21.12.

Today: highlights include GE Trade Balance, US Jobless Claims, Fed’s Mester, Barkin, Daly, ECB’s Lane & de Guindos.

Interesting Mover: USOil ($83.50) has lost its 3m long uptrend, is below its 50MA and testing a strong support level at the $83.50 area, with RSI (14) at 39.72.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 6th October 2023.

Market Update – October 6- Wait and see: NFP ahead.

It has been a quiet day in the markets with subdued volumes and small changes: in America US30 ticked down 0.03% while both US500 & US100 lost around 0.1% and volumes have been 15% lower than the 30-day average. But European indices and other asset calls such as metals also showed a lot of indecision, drawing what in candlestick analysis is called a Doji. The situation was somewhat different for the USD and Oil, which fell, in the case of the latter strongly.

The market awaits the September NFP data today after the picture that has emerged so far this week from the labour data has been mixed: we had a strong JOLTS report while ADP payrolls disappointed; yesterday’s Claims varied very little leaving room for indecision. Investors are worried about the possibility of a very positive NFP which could put new pressure on bonds and equities: yesterday the 10Y weakened to 4.73% but there are some market watchers – including bond king Bill Gross and Jamie Dimon – who see the possibility of quite higher levels in the future. Anyway, back to NFP, the average expectations are for +170k new jobs created, down from +187k in August and estimates range from +145k to +240k with the big US banks (Citi, BOFA) skewed to the upside.

NFP Readings

A note on the various speeches the central bankers are giving these days: yesterday both NY Fed’s Davy and ECB’s Villeroy empathized that the current monetary levels are appropriate, and expectations are correctly pricing future 2023 moves (no more hikes). Finally, Oil keeps falling and that is good news: Russia is lifting its Diesel exports ban but Curve is still in backwardation.

*FX – USDIndex +0.17% @ 106.26; USDJPY < 149, EURUSD -0.11% @ 1.0542, Cable -0.15% @ 1.2174. The once mighty MXN peso is falling hard vs USD, this morning +0.20% and +7.49% from 20/09. USDZAR flat not far from 2023 highs 19.51.
*Stocks – Equity futures are slightly negative this morning, US500 -0.1%, Europe is mostly flat with FRA40 outperforming +0.05% at 7020.
*Commodities – USOil +0.05% at 82.58$ pauses its drop close to a mild support level.
*Metals – Gold flat @ $1820.78, XAGUSD -0.20 @ $20.92, Palladium -0.67% and Copper $3.56 are still weak and below their recent floors.

Today: highlights include German Industrial Orders, US NFP, Labor Force Participation and Unemployment rate, Canadian Employment, Fed’s Waller.

Interesting Mover: USDMXN is up 7.49% since 20/09 lows, shows higher highs and trades above 50-200 MAs. 18.40 – 18.55 is a mild resistance area, RSI14 marks 72.24.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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[HFM]

Date: 9th October 2023.

Market Update – October 09 – “Long and Difficult war”.

Rising geopolitical tensions fueled a rise in risk aversion at the start of the week. Oil prices spiked amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Dollar picked up haven demand. The surprise Hamas attack on Israel boosted Gold and US currency. The USDIndex is trading at 106.12. USOil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday amid concerns that Hamas’s attack on Israel will increase tensions across the Middle East and affect output from leading producers. The White House confirmed deaths of ‘several’ US citizens in Hamas attacks.

Germany: The industrial production corrected -0.2% m/m in August. If oil prices rise further, the risks to growth will pick up, also because a fresh pick-up in inflation will weigh on consumer demand and complicate the situation for the ECB.

Japan and Hong Kong were closed for holidays. In the US only equity markets are open today, with bond markets and Fed closed for Columbus Day. Chinese stocks declined on Monday morning, as markets returned from a week-long holiday that prompted disappointing levels of spending and travel.

US NFP: Nonfarm payrolls blew past estimates, surging 336k in September, with a net 119k upward revision to the prior two months. That put a November Fed rate hike back on the table and the markets responded as would be expected with Treasury rates surging, the USDIndex popping, and stocks sagging. But other parts of the report were more mixed which helped alleviate Fed fears while dip buyers, short covering, and technical buying ahead of the long weekend helped trim bond losses.

*USDIndex edged up to 106.13 from 105.82 while the Yen steadied at 149 lows. The EURUSD slide back to 1.0540 lows indicating a potential resumption of the long term downtrend while Cable settled at 1.2190. The Australian Dollar, seen as a proxy for risk appetite, slid to 0.6347, while the Kiwi edged lower to 0.5968.
*Stocks: The CSI300 corrected -0.2% as mainland China markets returned from the Golden Week holiday. The ASX managed to nudge 0.2% higher. GER40 and UK100 are in the red, as are US futures.
*Oil: USOil and UKOil gapped up to 85.95 and 87.81 respectively a day after Israel’s PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, warned of a “long and difficult war”.
*Gold at $1855.50, as traders flocked to safer assets.

Interesting Mover: USOil and UKOil both retest 38.2% Fib. from September’s downleg, with USOil posting a death cross in the 4-hour chart.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.